NJ Ayuk has written a provocative book called A Just Transition: Making Energy Poverty History with an Energy Mix.
Ayuk sums up his book in 6 words: "Gas First. Solar and Wind Later."
Here are some memorable parts of the book:
- 16% of the world is African, but they produce 3% of emissions.
- "Africa has supplied oil and gas to the world--while neglecting its own needs."
- Coal emits "nearly twice as many greenhouse gas emissions as natural gas per unit of energy."
- More than 600 million people in the Sub-Sahara have no access to electricity.
- "The dignity of work goes a long, long way in building a strong, sustainable community."
- "Africa has 40% of the world's solar energy potential."
He sums up his book in a sentence: "We cannot ignore the needs of millions in our zeal to prevent climate change."
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Africa shouldn't have to be energy poor
I'm not a climate doomsday activist. Most doom-and-gloom apocalyptic scenarios that many environmentalists forecast are overly negative.
Yes, the world is warming.
Yes, it's primarily human-made.
However, just as the Netherlands thrives despite being below sea level, most coastal metropolises will use technology to deal with sea level rise.
Farmers will grow different crops. Canadians will grow what farmers in Nebraska grow, and Nebraskans may grow tropical fruits.
In short, humanity will do what it's always done: adapt.
It won't be fun; we wish we were wiser; maybe 1 billion will die or get displaced, but we'll survive.
And yes, thousands of plant & animal species will suffer. It may be the sixth mass extinction event. But humans will survive it.
In short, part of me is fine with Ayuk's idea of Africa blasting tons of natural gas into the atmosphere because you must consume energy to get rich.
Ayuk suggests that humanity's ship is sinking, and Africa should be able to drink the alcohol with everyone else while the ship goes down.
Indeed, why does the rest of the world get to spew out greenhouse gases while Africans have to refrain or use solar/wind, which aren't 100% competitive yet?
I understand.
However, there are three problems
1. Africa will suffer more than any other continent from global warming since it is already the hottest continent. Therefore, they are shooting themselves in the foot by increasing greenhouse gases.
Ayuk cites that gas emits half the greenhouse gases of coal, but that's not a big difference. If it were 10x, I'd be impressed. But since Africans are growing from 1.1 billion to 4.4 billion this century, they need something better than gas.
2. As Ayuk rightly observes, Africa has abundant wind/solar capacity. Africa could lead in renewable, clean energy just like they leapfrogged others when they skipped landlines and went straight to mobile. Africans innovated on mobile money because they were early adopters.
Instead, Ayuk wants to copy the energy dinosaurs in the rich world who are already innovating in wind & solar. Africans will again be forced to buy wind & solar tech from abroad since they didn't invent it when they could because they were too busy burning their gas.
3. Ayuk has deep financial interests in African natural gas companies and apparently nothing in wind & solar. On August 1, 2023, NJ Ayuk's LinkedIn profile states:
"Mr. Ayuk concentrates particularly on the structuring, local content, documentation and negotiation of oil, gas and petrochemical transactions. His clients include oil and gas producers, operators, petrochemical manufacturers, oil field services companies and financing parties in the energy industry. He has played a key role in negotiating and documenting the purchase and sale of upstream and midstream oil and gas assets, farmins, farmouts, volumetric production payments and other drilling fund and development dollar investment arrangements, as well as petrochemical project development, asset acquisition and divestiture and joint venture investments. The Oil and Gas Year Publication recognized him as "a shrewd, street-smart, savvy dealmaker and major asset" and Chambers and Partners recognized him as an "important player" and a "tremendous resource"-an acknowledgement bestowed upon him by his peers in the industry."
Verdict
Ayuk is deep in bed with the oil and gas industry. He's made millions from that industry. Of course, he will champion Africa exploiting all their natural gas resources even if it leads to worse global warming. Ayuk has enough money to buy a few mansions in Canada, Alaska, Scandinavia, and Russia to escape the heat.
As Upton Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
1/10 stars.
#AJustTransitionMakingEnergyPovertyHistorywithanEnergyMix
